Paul Saffo says 50-50 Chance U.S. Dissolves by Mid-Century

In this fascinating video (found over at the Epicenter Wired blog), futurist (and WEF advisor) Paul Saffo discusses why he believes that there is a 50% probability that the US will disintegrate into city-states or autonomous regions within 50 years.

I’m wondering how Saffo’s projected city-state/autonomous region mapping would overlap with “The Nine Nations of North America” analysis by Joel Garreau some years back? The sad fact is, if this fragmentation comes to pass, Kentucky is likely to end up in a pretty unfavorable group, or worse yet, be forced to go it alone. Should we be thinking about what that would entail for the Bluegrass? Does it mean that the Golden Triangle would just cast off the rest of the state? How would that work?

You know somebody has to be thinking about this already. Right? [Uh-oh.]


1 Comment

Filed under Cities, Globalization, Politics

One response to “Paul Saffo says 50-50 Chance U.S. Dissolves by Mid-Century

  1. Patrick

    This is a really interesting thought, but I believe there’s another thing that needs to brought up if his prediction is right. As he says “there’s less than 50% chance that the United States will exist as a nation by the middle of the century” our first reaction is to wonder what it would be like if a fragmentation did occur. However, if the probability of this is only ~50% we are left with another scary situation; that the fragmentation will not occur. If this is the case, the political/economic climate which may have caused a fragmentation will naturally be worse yet the U.S. will remain in its entirety regardless.

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